– 82% chance of US strike and 49% chance of intense hurricane
– Storm Exchange forecasts above average season; Hyperactive season unlikely.
– 53% Chance of Gulf hurricane, 6 - 8 hurricanes, 2 - 4 becoming Category 3 or higher.
Storm Exchange, Inc., a market leader in weather-risk management services, today released its monthly 2008 Hurricane Forecast Update, reaffirming the forecast of a more active than normal season. Developed using a combination of statistical and dynamical forecasting methodologies, the latest assessment rates the probability of a U.S. hurricane strike at 82 percent. The likelihood of an intense hurricane in the U.S. is 49 percent and the likelihood of a hurricane hitting the Gulf region is 53 percent.
Storm Exchange is expecting 12 - 14 named storms overall, with 6 - 8 hurricanes and 2 - 4 becoming intense (Category 3 or higher) storms. The updated forecast, while remaining above the long-term average, has been reduced slightly from the update released on May 1st.
“While conditions for hurricane formation have become slightly less favorable overall since our last update, we should still be prepared to encounter our fair share of hurricanes this season,” said Paul Walsh, Storm Exchange Chief Strategy Officer. “While a repeat of the hyperactive 2005 season is now highly unlikely, Hurricane Bertha, the second strongest storm to ever form this early in the season, is a stark reminder that the overall risk environment for hurricane formation remains high.”
Storm Exchange PhD meteorologists update the Atlantic Basin hurricane outlook monthly from their Research Center at State College, PA, adjacent to the campus of The Pennsylvania State University. The updates utilize the most sophisticated atmospheric science and computer technologies available and are meant to provide an objective grading of the current risk factors related to the hurricane season based on the latest global observations and forecast information. The next update will be released to clients on July 31st and to the media on August 4th.
To receive a copy of the Storm Exchange 2008 Hurricane Outlook, please click on the 2008 Hurricane Forecast Update.
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